Last night after the Massachusetts special election I did an estimate of what the congressional election results will look like in 2010. It looks like the House will be taken by the Republicans, and there is a really good chance they will take the Senate as well.

This afternoon I heard Dick Armey on the radio.  He came to the same conclusion I did.

The results of the special elections at the end of last year and the Massachusetts election yesterday prove that the American public is fed up with leftist Democrats screwing up the country.

It is a given that the House will be taken by the Republicans in 2010. The House was designed to be closer to the people than the Senate. The American people strongly dislike the direction the current US government is taking us. The people will speak up in 2010 and the result will be a conservative takeover of the House.

Figuring out what will happen in the Senate takes a little more work, but don’t worry. Dick Armey and I came to the same conclusion independently. Here are my reasons for predicting a Republican turnover.

In 2010 all of the Republican Senators running for reelection will hold their seats. The people want an end to the kind of nonsense the Democrats have been pulling this last year. They won’t be inclined to give the Democrats a second chance to commit more of the same crimes.

All of the seats that are up for grabs will go to the Republicans or Independents. The people are fed up with the Democrats. This will give the conservatives four or five seats. We need eleven, so seven more seats need to be taken from the Democrats.

The other seven or so seats will come from districts where credible Republicans run against Democrats, or where the Democrat is disliked by their constituents. We have seen this happen in the special elections. States that should have gone to Democrats went to Republicans instead. By my counting, using information from Wikipedia, there are at least eight seats that are likely to be taken by Republicans. I predict more credible Republicans will decide to run in 2010, because credible Republicans who want to follow the path of public service know that this will be the year to run.  This year holds out the greatest chance for winning, and it holds the greatest promise to do good in Washington DC, and this year we have the greatest need.

The following table gives my current best guesses for the 37 seats up for reelection in 2010.  It tracks that change in GOP seats:

By my count there are likely 12 seats that will turn over, which is more than are needed. Of course just because they are likely doesn’t mean they will turn over, but two things will come into play. Only 11 turnovers are needed. And more credible conservatives are likely to decide to run against Democrats.  If all of the Democrats faced credible conservative challengers, all 18 Democrat seats could turn over in 2010.

The Democrat seats that I have listed as likely to remain Democrat are Evan Bayh, Indiana; Barbara Miluski, Maryland; Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, New York; Ron Wyden, Oregon; and Patrick Leahy, Vermont. These are all tough seats to challenge.

Ron Wyden is from my state and I know a little about him. Even though he voted for the socialized healthcare bill, he made it clear that he was against it. He proposed an alternative to it that Obama shot down, so Oregonians won’t hold healthcare against him. Even a strong Republican candidate would have problems beating Wyden.

The New York Senators could be brought down by strong Republicans.

I don’t know much about Miluski, or Leahy.

Boxer is having troubles in California. California is so fed up with the way Democrats are running things in their state that Carly Fiona stands a really good chance of beating her.

If all 18 Democrat Senator seats turn over in 2010 the stage would be set for a supermajority in 2012.  Only three more conservative seats would be needed in 2012.  A conservative supermajority in 2012 would give us the ability to amend the Constitution to prevent some of the abuses we’ve seen in 2009. 

With a conservative Congress, Obama could be impeached as early as the end of 2010, but more likely in early 2011.

Sarah Palin is taking time since leaving the governorship of Alaska to support conservative candidates in 2010.  Her support will definitely be welcome, but it may not be needed.  Her congressional campaign appearances in 2010 may do as much or more to support her presidential candidacy in 2012 than the congressional candidates in 2010.  The smart congressional candidates in 2010 will be looking at building their relationship with her not just for the 2010 election but for the 2012 election and a 2012-2020 presidency.

Stumble it!