The current Rasmussen poll for the generic congressional election shows a complete turnaround from October last year.  The GOP is ahead by about 14% from October last year. 

If the congressional elections were held today, there would be about a 14% change in Congress from GOP to Dem membership.  Let’s apply this change to the House and Senate numbers. 

The Senate has 100 members and a third are up for replacement.  There are 57 Dems and 40 GOP members.  A third of those would be about 15 Dems and 13 GOP.  Make the 14% shift and we get 13 Dems and 15 GOP.  Put them back into the Senate and we get 55 Dems and 42 GOP.  The Senate will remain under the Dem control in 2010.  A more accurate and more detailed analysis will show the same thing.

The House of Representatives has 433 members, 255 Dem and 178 GOP.  All members are up for election in 2010.  Make the 14% shift and we get 219 Dem and 214 GOP. 

Just from this simple analysis, it looks like a takeover of the House is might happen.  Given the current sentiments of the public, I think this is a likely change.  The September 12 Tea Party expressed an unprecedented sentiment.  There is a lot of dislike for the liberals right now.  But there is also some dissatisfaction with the GOP. 

I expect a big swing back to the GOP in 2010.  More important than that, something that doesn’t come out in the Rasmussen Dem/GOP poll, is that the conservative non-GOP candidates will gain a lot of ground.  As Scott Rasmussen expained once, most liberals are Democrats.  Conservatives are more spread across the board.  A lot of Independents,  Libertarians, etc. are conservatives.  

With this information I can predict, not a GOP, but a conservative majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.  

I don’t see the polling numbers improving for the liberals in 2010 because they insist on doing stupid things like trying to push through HR 3200, the socialized medicine bill, against the consent of the people.  They don’t get it, so their numbers aren’t going to improve.

With a conservative majority in the House in 2010, we will be able to put a conservative in the White House in 2011 by impeaching Obama and Biden.  Then we can start fixing some problems.

Stumble it!