I’m a numbers guy. I like to know what the numbers say because numbers mean things.
I thought that estimating the crowd size at the Capitol Mall for the Tea Party was going to be easy. ABC, followed by Michelle Malkin estimated the party-goers as 2 million. The problem is that the US Park Service says the mall only holds 1.5 million people. According to a January 1, 2009 USA Today’s article
“If the National Mall is densely packed from Third Street to the Washington Monument, and if the area from the monument to the Lincoln Memorial has an average density, the space could contain 1.5 million people, Barna said. Average density is one person per 5 square feet. A tightly packed crowd has a density of one person per 2.5 square feet, an area slightly larger than this newspaper.”
Cynthia Yokey was there and she reports “When I finally found him and got the press pass to hang around my neck it was like have a magic crowd-parting talisman, providing I said the magic spell, “Press! Excuse me!” although this was slow going because people didn’t have much of any place to move to, even with the magic talisman and spell, especially in the area near the stage, where I had to go because that’s where the press table was.” The crowd was packed.
From all the estimates I’ve been reading, it certainly looks like there were over 1 million. Reports of “tens of thousands” are absurd and speak poorly of the credibility of the reports who gave those numbers.
Estimates larger than 1.5 million are incorrect, because the mall doesn’t really hold more than that.
According to Tabitha Hale, the Metro Police estimate 1.2 million and Park Service estimates 1.5 million. I don’t know where those numbers come from. The Police number looks close though.
This YouTube video shows a time lapse photo movie that is getting lots of views. The version shown on YouTube has been edited in such a way that it can’t be used to approximate the number marchers. However, there is a 3.5 hour source for the YouTube movie that can be used to get an accurate number if anyone wants to pursue that.
A lot of us are recognizing that the march on Washington was an incredible political event. Nothing like has happened before. It bodes poorly for the liberals in Washington. Too bad Obama was conveniently out of town when it happened.
This photo about sums it all up:
Stumble it!
4 users commented in " Estimating the crowd size at the Tea Party at the Capitol Mall "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackI was there and it was a significantly larger crowd than the ones I’ve been in for the 7/4 parade/concert/fireworks. It was also much neater.
I don’t doubt that it was much larger than the 7/4 crowds. This rally came from the same patriotic sentiments, but this rally was more than a symbolic celebration.
One of the things I find surprising is the number of sorry individuals who insist that the crowd was only 60-70,000 people.
I have done my own study base on a devised stationary methodology and calculation which you can find here:
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It’s backed by visual evidence (pictures and clips) all available in the same entry, plus determining the boundaries of the rally and calculation of the final tally derived from the density of the crowd at each given block. My calculus puts the figures around 130k up to 160k.
Nice try, but you’ve made at least one major error, and you are disagreeing with the people who do this estimate professionally.
You left out everyone beyond 3rd street. Everyone filling side streets. Everyone coming and going because there were not nearly enough porta potties. Everyone who came and went because they couldn’t stay for the whole thing or they had to come late. Everyone who couldn’t get in because it was too crowded (ahem). Everyone who marched and then left.
I look forward to your explanation of why you didn’t count the people on the other side of 3rd street. It should be interesting, especially given the number of eyewitnesses who wrote about their attendance on the other side of 3rd street. I would like to know who all those people are in the photos. Tourists maybe?
There is other incidental evidence that I came across and didn’t bookmark unfortunately. You can find it if you want to look for it.
So I don’t buy your numbers. I obviously don’t think you are even close.
You can pretend that it wasn’t as big a deal as it was but reality is reality. Really large number of Americans are fed up with the federal government, and we want real change.
There are so many people pissed off because of the way the feds and the MSM are responding and covering this major political event that there will be substantially more people there next year. You betcha there will be!
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